A Shared Home

In 2014, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung invited twenty experts from twelve European countries to jointly develop scenarios for the future of relations between the European Union, the Russian Federation and their Common Neighbourhood.

The Scenario Group came up with four equally plausible scenarios of how relations between »the EU and the East« might develop between now and 2030.1 The scenarios proposed four different types of »home«, as metaphors for the kind of circumstances all Europeans from Lisbon to Vladivostok might experience in 2030:

1. A Shared Home, in which pragmatic cooperation characterizes relations between the EU, Russia and the six countries »in-between«. A commonality of interests, but not of values, leads to a gradual rapprochement among all concerned after the deep crisis of 2013–16.

2. A Common Home characterized by interest-driven cooperation and a commonality of values.

3. A Broken Home, where a European Home as such no longer exists. Instead, by 2030 Europe is back to a Cold War–like situation with confrontation instead of cooperation, without common interests, and clearly without common values.

4. A Divided Home, also called the Cold Peace, where the current status quo continues, with a few common interests, some conflict and increasing divergence in values.

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